|Three scientists say that half of La Palma will fall into the sea and cause a tsunami that will wipe out much of the population of the eastern seaboard of the USA.|
They are wrong.
La Palma will not slide into the sea.
Even if it did, it wouldn't cause a tsunami that would reach the USA
Why are they saying it will?
Almost certainly to obtain funding for their own research projects.
The worlds scientific experts have shown the "research" by Ward/Day/McGuire to be incorrect, unproven and wildly exaggerated both in the Horizon program and subsequent interviews. It is not based on scientific facts.
New York has nothing to fear from La Palma. The island is stable. Only a substantial increase in height could cause it to become unstable and at the current rate of growth that would take at least 10,000 years,
This news spoils the fun for the media, disaster-mongers and hazard industry, but fortunately for the supposed potential victims and the people of the Canary Islands there is nothing to worry about on La Palma.
The content of the BBC Horizon television program has been disproved by fellow scientists and the even the BBC itself has published a partial retraction under the title "Tidal wave threat "over-hyped"
Read the facts about the situation here:
|FACT: The Tsunami Society rightly accuses Ward/Day/McGuire of scaremongering|
|The Tsunami Society has issued a press statement to counteract the effect of the scaremongering reports.|
Their aim is to correct misleading or invalid information released to public about this hazard.
The Tsunami Society states about the Discovery Channel program:
'We would like to halt the scaremongering from these unfounded reports."
Source: The Tsunami Society
|THEY SAY: The "The block dropped 4 meters in 1949"!.|
|The suggestion that 'the block' of rock (25km long, 2-3km deep and 15-20km wide) suddenly sank by 4 metres in 1949 is an absurd lie. Just one look at the coastal villages of Puerto Naos, Tazacorte, El Remo, Bombilla and Playa Nueva is enough to disprove this ridiculous lie. These villages are all situated just above sea level and would have disappeared under the sea.|
The block didn't sink, the villages didn't sink. SOME OF THE AREAS 30,000+ INHABITANTS WOULD HAVE NOTICED.
Ward/Day/McGuire suggest that the entire block moved 4metres vertically in relation to the rest, if that were true it would leave a very clearly visible vertical displacement fault. This evidence just does not exist. The line they suggest for the edge of the block is 40kms long. Along 37.5km of this line there is NO EVIDENCE of any movement at all. They are lying about 37.5km of the 40km line.
Or lets measure it by surface area. The surface area of the supposed block (above the sea) is about 135km2, there is evidence of movement in area of roughly 0.25km2.
What the real scientists reported was a surface fissure 2.5km long. A fissure is NOT a vertical displacement. The real scientists stated that there was no evidence to indicate that it was anything more than a localised surface phenomenon created by the lava flows nearby.
If 'the block' dropped by 4 meters then there must be a surface crack along the 2 sides. These cracks DO NOT EXIST. There is no fault line. The suggestion that the block fell is a deliberate falsehood. They found 'a crack in the paint' but Ward/Day/McGuire claim that 'the whole wall is about to fall down' !!!
|THEY SAY: Mountain flank collapses have caused long-distance Mega-tsunamis. |
|The three known instances of similar events, Krakatoa, Santorin and Lituya Bay, Alaska, created local damage but a tsunami did not reach any distant shores. Claims that the El Hierro collapse caused problems in the Bahamas are denied by scientists in the Bahamas.|
Ward/Day/McGuire ignored proven scientific facts and start the Horizon program by stating that the Lituya Bay, Alaska incident caused a mega tsunami. It didn't, and they knew it. Lander, and P. Lockridge stated clearly that the wave was confined to a small bay and dissipated quickly in the open waters of the Gulf of Alaska.
|DAMNING EVIDENCE: Using scientific computer modelling the researchers from the Technical University of Delft tried to simulate the collapse of La Palma and an ensuing Tsunami. Even using extreme unrealistic data and ignoring many dampening effects they could not create a significant tsunami.|
The Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands is a highly respect University and Technical Research Institute.
Their evidence leads one to compare the BBC Horizon program and the so called research by Ward/Day/McGuire with a Monty Python sketch. The only way La Palma is going to fall into the ocean is if the gigantic Monty Python cartoon foot kicks it there!
|LIE: The Horizon report suggests that evidence was gathered from the water galleries (tunnels) on La Palma.|
|ALL the La Palma galleries are in the Caldera de Taburiente in the North of the island. The Caldera has a completely different structure and cannot provide valid supporting evidence.|
|MISREPRESENTATION: The Horizon report shows 4 huge vertical walls of rock within the Cumbre Vieja.|
|One of the graphics clearly shows 4 vertical columns of rock which, it is claimed, would trap water and create the explosion needed to trigger a landslide. The walls of rock appear to be about half a kilometer wide, at least 4 km deep and according to their own theory would need to be solid, continuous, 25km long and run parallel for all of that 25km.|
Curiously, none of these huge walls of rock were encountered by the construction workers who built the 2 road tunnels which have been drilled through the Cumbre Vieja.
Curiously, none of the 4 walls of rock actually come to the surface ANYWHERE, not even where the island plunges down into the sea.
Curiously, the authors own scientific report over the west side of the island categorically states that nothing is known about the structure under the Cumbre Vieja and suggests that someone investigates it. Yet they expect us to believe their speculation that these huge columns exist.
Conclusion ? The 4 vertical walls of rock are a fabrication and only exist in the Horizon program.
|THEY SAY: La Palma will drop as one massive block into the ocean.|
|All the measurements used to define the size of the possible block that might fall into the sea have been grossly exaggerated.|
The length, width, depth and speed are all fictional.
The physical evidence for the length of the block is 4km, yet in the model they used 15 to 25 km.
The depth is suggested as 2 to 3km below the surface. The report itself states that there is no evidence for any form of deep fracture. The figure used is fictitious and was obviously chosen because without a large figure the whole La Palma Tsunami theory is exposed as a fake.
Width is given as 15 to 20 km. Again there is no hard evidence to support this fiction.
The speed of the collapse used in the model is not possible under normal circumstances. An unusual form of natural lubrication would be needed to achieve the speeds used in the model. This natural lubrication is NOT present under La Palma. An immense force would be needed to trigger the movement of the so-called block and these explosive pressures could not be produced on La Palma.
|THEY CALCULATED: Their computer model says there would be a 'disaster-movie-size wave'.|
|The method of calculation used in the mathematical model is the wrong one. It is only valid for long under sea earthquakes. It is incorrect and misleading to claim that it can be applied to landslides.|
Using the correct calculations there wouldn't have been a scare story.
|THEY SAY: La Palma has undergone a previous single total flank collapse.|
|There are piles of debris off the coast of La Palma but there is no evidence that this was caused by a single event. There IS evidence that the debris is the result of a series of small landslides.|
Ward/Day/McGuire present this lie as a fact but produce NO evidence to support their falsification, which is simply because there is no evidence.
|FACT: The 'Natural Hazard' industry is a multimillion pound (euro/dollar) business.|
|Educational and Research institutes, Insurance companies and Hazard warning equipment manufacturers have a large commercial interest in promoting a high level of interest (and investment) in hazard monitoring programs.|
Promoting scare stories is one method of obtaining funding.
|FACT: The research and TV program were funded by Insurance companies.|
|The 'research organisation' which provided the information for the BBC Horizon program is largely funded by their parent organisation.|
Their parent organisation is an Insurance Company. Insurance sells better when their potential clients get scared.
Previous versions of the research organisations website showed logos and references to the insurance companies who finance the hazard research. These references are no longer shown on the website.
|FACT: The Horizon program uses wonderful graphics but very few facts.|
|The Horizon program uses wonderful graphics but proves nothing. The program is full of misleading suggestions and unrelated facts. For example the 4 huge vertical solid walls of rock shown in one diagram do not exist. Nothing even remotely like these walls exists. This is not a diagrammatic representation of the facts. It is pure fiction without which the hazard industry scare story would not exist.|
The BBC Horizon program is NOT A SCIENTIFIC program. It belongs on the science fantasy shelf along with Star Wars, Jurassic Park and Godzilla.
|QUESTION: Why was the film made when the scientific community knew that it was based on lies and speculation?.|
|Perhaps the quest for personal fame and fortune played a role?|
McGuire's books seem to be selling quite well. They include 'A Guide to the End of the World : Everything You Never Wanted to Know', 'A Guide to the End of the World' and 'Surviving Armageddon: Solutions for a Threatened Planet'. These are not serious scientific works, they are science fantasy.
A further apocalyptic report has been published in the The Halifax Travel Insurance Holiday 2003 report, yet another insurance industry financed ploy to promote insurance products.
Maybe, as stated on the publishers description of the Apocalypse book it was 'designed to encourage the scientific study of geo-hazard prediction and management'. Is it a coincidence that McGuire and his company make their money from geo-hazard prediction and management? No, the conclusion must be that they used the BBC Horizon program as an enormous advertisement for their own commercial products. This not permitted under the statutes of the BBC.
Day runs tsunami workshops for the insurance industry, for example Tsunamis: past events and future risk, A Workshop for the Under 35s Reinsurance Group, organised by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, UCL.
McGuire even runs a 'UCL Certificate Course: Natural Hazards for Insurers'.
|QUESTION: Did the Hazard Industry pay the BBC to show this blatant advertisement?.|
|Ward/Day/McGuire work for the Benfield Hazard Research Centre. To quote their wesbite ... 'BHRC is sponsored by Benfield, the world's leading independent reinsurance intermediary and risk advisory business.'.|
The Horizon program was effectively a 30 minute advertisement for the Hazard Industry.
Who paid for it?
Was it paid for out of BBC funds which come directly from the British Taxpayer?
Did the BBC receive money to broadcast this 30 minute advert despite protests from the scientific community about its validity?
|SUSPICIOUS: TVE proudly presents and new program by 'DISASTERMAN, Bill McGuire'.|
|'TVE makes disaster films for Channel 5 and Sky News' 'So watch this week and be afraid - very afraid'.|
Those are their words not mine. The science fantasy production line continues. Maybe they will be remaking Godzilla next (because it really could happen guys!)
|FACT: The Horizon program has created millions of victims.|
|The Horizon program scared millions of people on the east coast of the USA. We have had many emails from people on the American east coast who could not sleep and were considering tearing up their roots and moving to higher ground. Questions were asked in the British parliament, and taxpayers money was wasted in countering the irresponsible Hazard Industry propaganda. Tourists cancelled holidays to La Palma, some foreigners sold their (second) homes on La Palma and left the island. JMC stopped direct charter flights form the UK, German airlines reduced their charter flights to La Palma by almost 50% and a flights from Switzerland stopped completely.|
Perhaps a claim for damages would be appropriate.
|BAD TASTE: 220,000+ dead: and the Hazard industries fund-raising is working overtime (January 2005) |
|It would seem that the Asian Tsunami and the loss of over 220,000 lives and displacement of 3 million people is seen as a 'business opportunity' by the hazard industry. They are giving interviews and making media presentations to force governments into investing in their hazard research.|
They could say no, but they don't.
They keep repeating their unsubstantiated La Palma Tsunami horror-stories despite the deaths. It is in sickeningly bad taste.